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Last night I nearly choked on my Brunello when I had to listen (again) to self-described intelligent people carry on (and on and on) about the Great Global Warming Hoax. The group discussing the idea work in investments for the most part and thus they can claim to be smart…
Ok, hold on. I can’t help myself. (I need an editor.) I have to make a side comment about wealth in America. I’m sure there are many good people with average to above average intelligence and work ethic who do very well because of their abilities. But do we really think that merely by virtue of being the ancestors of immigrants (for the most part) that we are some how exceptional in these gifts? In other words, do we think people like William McGuire at UnitedHealth Group or Lloyd Blankfein at Goldman Sachs would make the kind of money they made if, say, they tried to be “self-made” in Somalia or North Korea? Come on…
Now back to my idea.
The people claiming that Global Warming is a hoax made the tired argument that sometimes the weather is actually cooler than normal. One bright woman pointed out that the weather yesterday was down right cold, in fact!
Now I don’t want to get into the weather versus climate differences. Intelligent people understand this difference anyway. I am suggesting an idea to deal with people not smart enough to understand the simple differences between weather and climate. Or unable to understand averages in trends, for that matter, too.
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Here is my suggestion and it might not be original but I’ll throw it out there anyway.
A lot of people who deny Global Warming come from the same crowd that thinks they understand economics, business, and investments. In fact EVERYONE thinks he is an economics and investment expert today!
So ask them to consider how investments grow. Peaks and valleys occur over time, but the over all trend is one of growth, right? The economy today is larger than it was 100 years ago. Correct? And barring something like Paul Ryan and his lot of idiots, the economy will continue to grow, with occassional and natural “corrections.” Am I right or am I wrong?
Cannot a reasonable person assess the overall trend in something like temperatures and carbon emissions as a similar peak and valley trend that is — undeniably — rising on an average over time?
Why would statistics in a science like investments function differently than in a science like climate?
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